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2032 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Roch)
2032 Atlantic Hurricane Season The '''2032 Atlantic Hurricane Season '''was the last of four consecutive below-average Atlantic hurricane seasons. It produced eleven tropical cyclones, nine named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2032, and ended on November 30, 2032. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the North Atlantic basin. The first storm of the season, Arthur, developed on July 13, while the final storm, Hanna, dissipated on October 3, about two months prior to the end of the season. Although most of the storms impacted land, the overall effects were minimal. Arthur caused minor flooding and wind damage in the Bahamas and Haiti and left one dead in Grand Bahama. Subtropical Storm Bertha did not impact land, however, it's remnants impacted Ireland as it merged with an extratropical cyclone, and caused some wind damages. Cristobal left a heavy impact on the Floridian Peninsula, and the Carolinas. Cristobal caused wind damages and flooding in those areas, causing at least five deaths. In mid-August, Hurricane Dolly caused minor flooding in Lousiana and brought heavy rainfall to Mexico and Cuba. Dolly caused nearly $600 million in damage and 7 fatalities. Edouard did not affect land in the slightest, however, it's remnants did, later on, bring light rain to Peurto Rico. Fay was originally only forecasted to become a Category 2, however, it strengthened into a Category 4 and made landfall directly on to the Florida Peninsula. Fay also caused major flooding and wind damages throughout the northern Caribbean and Bahamas, as well as the Eastern Seabord. Fay caused an estimate of over 4 billion dollars in damages (USD) and around 102 fatalities, most of them being in the Bahamas and the northern Caribbean. Gonzalo formed in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, intensifying rather quickly and becoming a category 1 hurricane in the span of around a day, causing some wind damage but mainly flooding on Mexico's northern coastline. Hanna did minimal impacts, causing some surge and rip currents in Bermuda and the Carolinas. Isaias primarily stayed off land and was mostly in the middle of the Atlantic. Seasonal Forecasts In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 13 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is considered occasionally as well. ImageSize = width:780 height:210 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2032 till:01/11/2032 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2032 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:13/06/2032 till:18/06/2032 color:TS text:"Arthur (TS)" from:23/07/2032 till:27/07/2032 color:TS text:"Bertha (SS)" barset:break barset:skip barset:skip from:01/08/2032 till:12/08/2032 color:C3 text:"Cristobal (C3)" from:09/08/2032 till:17/08/2032 color:C2 text:"Dolly (C2)" from:10/08/2032 till:12/08/2032 color:TD text:"Five (TD)" from:14/08/2032 till:19/08/2032 color:TS text:"Edouard (TS)" from:19/08/2032 till:22/08/2032 color:TD text:"Seven (TD)" from:27/08/2032 till:11/09/2032 color:C4 text:"Fay (C4)" from:03/09/2032 till:06/09/2032 color:C1 text:"Gonzalo (C1)" barset:break from:11/09/2032 till:19/09/2032 color:TS text:"Hanna (TS)" from:28/09/2032 till:03/10/2032 color:TS text:"Isaias (SS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2032 till:01/07/2032 text:June from:01/07/2032 till:01/08/2032 text:July from:01/08/2032 till:01/09/2032 text:August from:01/09/2032 till:01/10/2032 text:September from:01/10/2032 till:01/11/2032 text:October TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" Systems Tropical Storm Arthur On July 8, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave emerging from the west coast of Africa. Over the next few days, the disturbance slowly organized while moving westward, and the system strengthened into the first tropical depression of the season late on July 12, before intensifying further into Tropical Storm Arthur early the next day. The system remained poorly organized throughout its lifespan, having little to none convection on its southern side.. Arthur began tracking westward, before turning northeastward and leaving the northern part of the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on July 17. On the next day, Arthur degenerated into an extratropical cyclone. Subtropical Storm Bertha An upper-level trough originating in the mid-latitudes cut off into a broad upper-level low over Florida on May 17. The low moved northeastward into the central Atlantic during the next day as a large area of cloudiness and showers developed to its east, and on July 21, it began to interact with low-level vorticity along the western edge of a dissipating cold front. The two systems had coalesced into a broad area of low pressure by 18:00 UTC on July 22, and convection associated with the low became better organized throughout that day as the system moved northward. By 22:00 UTC, an Air Force reconnaissance flight found that the system had acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and was producing gale-force winds well away from the center. Based on the aircraft data and the structure of the system, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimated that the system became Subtropical Storm Bertha at 18:00 UTC on July 23. However, the cyclone soon began to entrain dry air into its circulation while southwesterly wind shear increased, resulting in a rapid waning of the convection. By 12:00 UTC on July 27, Bertha's convection had dissipated, and the cyclone degenerated into a remnant low. The remnant low moved east-northeastward through the following day until it was absorbed by a cold front at 8:00 UTC on May July 28. Hurricane Cristobal On July 29, the NHC highlighted the potential for tropical cyclogenesis off the lesser Antilles in the next subsequent days. A weak area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave began to emerge into the region a few days later, and the disturbance steadily coalesced into a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on July 31, about 300 mi (483 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression organized while heading northwest, intensifying into Tropical Storm Cristobal a day later and attaining hurricane intensity by 12:00 UTC on August 5th. After its initial peak in intensity, Gaston's satellite appearance began to degrade as an upper-level low imparted strong southwesterly shear on the cyclone, causing it to weaken back to a tropical storm. Upper-level winds slackened early on August 8, and satellite structure began to improve over the next few hours, however, there was still moderate shear, halting further development of the system. A day later, Cristobal began to enter the Gulf of Mexico, shear began to drastically decrease, allowing for intensification into a major hurricane. As well, an incoming front began to drag and speed up the system towards the Floridian peninsula. And on August 10, it made landfall in Florida as a category 3 hurricane with winds up to 125 mph (205 km/h). As it re-entered the Atlantic, the front has begun to weaken, which allowed for Cristobal to head towards the Carolinas. However, due to increasing shear, Cristobal began to weaken, and made landfall as a tropical storm on August 11, shortly dissipating the day after. Hurricane Dolly A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 2, producing minimal convection as it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic for several days thereafter. The wave fractured as it approached the Lesser Antilles on August 6, with the northern portion turning northwestward and the southern portion, which later formed into tropical depression five, continuing westward across the Caribbean Sea. The northern portion of the wave produced intermittent disorganized convection as it continued westward, reaching the southeastern Bahamas on August 7. Early the following day, a concentrated area of deep convection developed, resulting in the formation of a tropical depression at 12:00 UTC on August 8. As the system began to treck westwards, the environment for intensification began to become favorable, allowing for the formation of Tropical Storm Dolly at 18:00 UTC on August 9. Continuous westward movement into the Gulf of Mexico prompted further intensification, becoming a hurricane on the next day, further intensifying into a category 2 hurricane on August 13. However, due to a cold front, Dolly began to head towards the Northeast, eventually weakening down to a category one before making landfall on August 16. Dolly was eventually downgraded to a remnant low at 12:00 UTC on August 17. Tropical Depression Five On August 6, the NHC highlighted the potential for tropical cyclogenesis in the Caribbean Sea in the next subsequent days. A weak area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave began to emerge into the region a few days later, and the disturbance steadily coalesced into a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC on August 10. However, due to moderate shear and dry air intruding the system, intensification was halted. Due to this dry air and shear, the system had only lasted 2 days, degenerating into a remnant low at 18:00 UTC on August 12. Tropical Storm Edouard A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 7, producing some convection as it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic for several days. At the time, sea surface temperatures were relatively warm, however, moderate shear and dry air intruding the system halted any intensification. On August 13, a tropical depression had formed from the wave, and with dry air, and shear, at a minimum, intensification was forecasted. The next day at 18:00 UTC, Tropical Storm Edouard was named by the NHC. A day based, and Edouard began to take a more northern track, causing minimal effects to the lesser Antilles. However, shear began to increase as it climbed latitude, which caused slow weakening over the next few days. Edouard was eventually downgraded into a remnant low at 12:00 UTC on August 19. Tropical Depression Seven On August 13, a tropical wave that originated from Africa began to be monitored as it headed westwards across the Atlantic. However, shear was moderate, which halted intensification into tropical depression status. However, as the system neared the United States, sheared had died down enough for it to establish an LLC. Due to this, NHC declared it as a tropical depression at 06:00 UTC on August 19. However, the circulation was unable to sustain enough convection. However, there was convection to the north, with caused flooding in Virginia and North Carolina. As the system headed north, shear began to increase. At 18:00 UTC, on August 22, the system was downgraded to a remnant low. Hurricane Fay Hurricane Gonzalo Tropical Storm Hanna Subtropical Storm Isaias Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:Future hurricane seasons Category:Below Average